Insights · Commentary
Market commentary and perspective from Chief Investment Officer Scott Smith.
In what has been dubbed as “the year of the elections” with approximately half of the world heading to the voting box in 2024, focus is now shifting to what is arguably the main event for the election calendar. The U.S. presidential election had been a relatively sleepy affair for the first half of
While it hasn’t had the splashiest of headlines like cocoa, coffee, or copper this year, gold has been putting together a solid rally over the course of 2024, with front-month roll-adjusted futures up +19.1% to July 17th. One of the most interesting things about the rally has been that it’s happenin
Global equity markets have powered higher for the first half of 2024, gaining ground on strong margin growth and the prospect of declining inflationary pressures. The U.S. equity market has been a stand-out, increasing by +19.8% in CAD terms, brushing off geopolitical concerns and any uncertainty ar
If you thought the current macroeconomic landscape wasn’t interesting enough (e.g., ongoing geopolitical conflicts, election uncertainty, etc.), we can now add an influenza outbreak to the 2024 bingo card. In late March of this year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) detected an out
Inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decisions are arguably two of the biggest announcements on the recurring economic calendar, with employment data rounding out the “big three.” The monthly inflation report for the U.S. has only coincided with the Fed’s interest rate announ
In what continues to be a challenging growing season for certain agricultural commodities, orange juice prices have resumed their upward trend as a combination of disease and extreme weather continue to wreak havoc on orange crops in Brazil. Frozen orange juice prices are up +32% so far this year, a
About a month ago, I wrote a brief note pondering if it was time to start getting back to benchmark duration weights in U.S. fixed income portfolios. The rationale for why it is too early to be extending duration is due to U.S. monetary policy being in a balancing feedback loop, which is the basis [
The rollercoaster ride for cocoa prices has continued throughout May with front-month futures prices down roughly -40% from the top in late April. For commodity managers that use volatility to adjust their position sizing, these managers would have sidestepped a good chunk of the negative price acti
Recently, CIO Scott Smith was featured in an article by Canadian Family Offices to emphasize the importance of commodities in a balanced portfolio for ultra-high-net-worth investors during the current commodities supercycle. Smith asserts that this supercycle began post-COVID-19 in 2020, fueled by s
Copper continued its upward climb on Monday, with front-month futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hitting a new record of $11k/ton before pulling back prior to the close. Copper prices have risen +30% year to date and the industrial metal is one of the top performing commodities in 2024. As s
One of the key themes on which we’ve been focusing this year in the run-up to the U.S. election has been foreign trade policy and how this could impact everything from growth and inflation, to the U.S. dollar. While both political parties in the U.S. can’t seem to agree on much, one thing they have
It’s probably best to start this note right up front and say the stock market is not the real economy, lest we get into a debate about whether it’s rational for bad news to be good for stocks and vice versa. On Friday, employment numbers for the U.S. economy were released, and there was a […]